Lotlinx Q3 Vincensus Finds Inventory Risk Rising Despite Steady Vehicle Sales
New inventory grows 9% against flat sales, while used-vehicle markdowns reach 47% and nearly half of all used inventory
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PETERBOROUGH, N.H., Oct. 27, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Lotlinx, the inventory performance intelligence company for automotive retail, today released its Q3 2026 Vincensus Report, revealing how stable vehicle sales are masking mounting inventory risk as dealers enter the final quarter of the year. The third quarter tested inventory health, as dealers now carry more inventory, older inventory and higher sticker prices than buyers have been paying.
Built on more than 24 billion proprietary VIN-level data points and over a decade of machine learning, Vincensus tracks sales, supply, pricing, aging, markdowns and demand across major OEMs and powertrains. Inventory health comes down to two questions: how much inventory risk a dealer carries, and how much marketing waste it pays for on cars that would sell anyway while struggling units go underexposed. Click here to access the full Q3 2026 Vincensus Report.
New vehicles: more supply, higher prices
New-vehicle sales were flat quarter-over-quarter after Q2’s 14% increase, while inventory grew 9%. Day supply rose to 62 days, five above last year, and carryover reached 51%. Aged ending inventory eased three points to 47% as fresh units arrived but remains three points above last year.
Risk is concentrated by brand, as Stellantis held the four highest day supplies in the market (Dodge 135, Jeep 133, RAM 114, Chrysler 107) and represented 13% of new inventory against 6% of sales, with 64% of it aged. Honda ran 36 days and Toyota 29, with the RAV4 at just 21, the fastest of any new model.
Pricing adds pressure ahead of year-end clearance. The list price of new ending inventory rose 10% year over year to $48,490, while the last list price of vehicles sold rose just 2% to $44,542. That gap of nearly $4,000, up from about $2,300 last quarter, will come out of gross if closed with markdowns. Vehicles priced at $45,000 or more were 59% of inventory but 51% of sales, and about half were aged, compared with 41% for vehicles below that price.
Powertrains
New EV sales fell 15% quarter over quarter, and 53% of EV inventory was aged, the highest of any powertrain. Hybrids made up 27% of new sales, up five points year over year, against 20% of inventory, with a 48-day supply versus 67 days for both EVs and internal combustion vehicles.
Used vehicles: where waiting costs margin
Used sales rose 5%, but inventory grew 5% too, pushing day supply to 42 days. Aged ending inventory rose four points to 50%, and carryover rose five points to 47%. The share of used vehicles sold with a markdown jumped six points to 47%, and the average markdown deepened to 5%. Markdowns are where inventory risk turns into lost gross, and nearly half of used units sold now carry one. The list price of used ending inventory rose 7% year over year to $29,895, versus $28,089 for the last list price of vehicles sold.
Lotlinx customers
Lotlinx customers entered Q4 with 43.7% of used inventory aged, versus 50.1% market-wide, a 6.3-point advantage, and outperformed the market in 96% of used brands. New was more challenging: 52.2% aged versus 51.2% market-wide, with outperformance in 38% of new brands.
Lotlinx tracks shopper demand at the VIN level across dealer websites and its digital advertising network to identify vehicles at risk of aging and separate them from units already getting enough attention. Its patented waterfall technology redirects advertising away from vehicles with adequate traffic and toward those that need exposure.
“Q3 was quiet on the surface, but the underlying inventory picture changes the situation for the fourth quarter,” said Len Short, Chairman and CEO of Lotlinx. “Dealers are carrying more inventory, older inventory and higher sticker prices than buyers have been paying. The opportunity is to identify which VINs are losing demand while there is still time to act, then direct pricing and advertising toward the vehicles that need help. Dealers who treat inventory as an investment to protect, rather than a product to push, will be better positioned to preserve margin through year-end.”
Click here to download the Q3 2026 Quarterly Vincensus Report, or request a complimentary, dealership-specific inventory report showing how your inventory health compares.
About Vincensus
Vincensus is Lotlinx’s recurring inventory intelligence series, translating proprietary VIN-level market and shopper data into quarterly benchmarks for vehicle sales, supply, pricing, aging, markdowns and consumer demand. By combining inventory performance with real-time shopper activity, Vincensus helps dealers and OEMs understand where market demand is moving, where inventory risk is building and how their performance compares with the broader market.
About Lotlinx
Founded in 2012 and headquartered in Peterborough, New Hampshire, Lotlinx is the inventory performance intelligence company for automotive retail. Lotlinx combines VIN-level inventory, market and shopper data with artificial intelligence to help dealers identify which vehicles need attention, understand why they are at risk and take action before turn and margin are lost. By connecting inventory, marketing and shopper activation around each vehicle, Lotlinx helps dealers improve inventory health and profitability. Learn more at www.lotlinx.com.
For more information John Sternal Merit Mile 561-362-8888 – office 954-592-1201 – mobile jsternal@meritmile.com
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